There are different theories about the state of disease in the world. Some feel that as countries become developed communicable disease will invariably decrease and non-communicable chronic diseases will dominate. This position is taken when referring to the global burden of disease. When thinking about the global burden of disease one is thinking about not only mortality but also morbidity with the consequent impact on the quality of life. Highly infectious diseases tend to have a higher mortality rate compared to the long term morbidity rate of chronic non-infectious diseases and morbidity and mortality must both be looked at to get a clear understanding of the overall impact of disease.
The other perspective addressed is referred of as the third epidemiologic transition which states that while antibiotics have lowered the incidence of infectious diseases and eliminated others, new diseases, especially zoonotic diseases are appearing and former pathogens through natural selection are quickly becoming resistance to antibiotics and therefore these pose and even greater threat to the world’s population.
These two positions tend to be contradictory. When looking at the global burden of disease it appears that microbes are permanently on the decrease thanks to technological advances while the position emphasizing the third technological transition asserts that they are eemergingĀ and are a real threat, maybe greater than they have ever been. There seems to be no connect between the two positions.
Technology is often seen as a sort of panacea which makes possible urbanization and the centralization of healthcare and with a market driven economy people’s needs are better addressed. But as a result of urbanization there has been environmental degradation and therefore for instance the invasion of new niches by disease such as the Lyme tick or the Hanta virus infected rodents bringing about contact with humans. Also with urbanization it makes it easier for certain diseases to spread. Diseases like influenza spread quickly through a population and can be transported internationally quickly.
Yet with urbanization and technology disease spread can potentially be addressed by better monitoring systems which can result from the better use of technology. Computerized databases with accurate reporting would simplify monitoring of disease and would more adequately address the risk of disease spread. With increased technology new treatments can be found and vaccines can be created.
Whether microbes seem to be getting the upper hand over the long term and whether further technological advances will be able to rebut immediate microbial treatment resistance is open to question. While it may be difficult to continue to create effective antibiotics, because of technological advancements different strategies may become available. More sophisticated strategies to addressing microbe antibiotic resistance may be found, and with the new field of genetic engineering by addressing specific genetic weakness in microbes. This is one hopeful strategy to address the HIV virus.
Therefore it is unclear whether disease will be more completely controlled in the future. Present evidence shows some diseases on the rise such as AIDS, Staphylococcus, Malaria, Cholera, Tuberculosis and others. The future is unclear. But promising new strategies and theories are being implemented. Perhaps there will be a better time for control of these deadly threats in the future.